Top Data News of the Week: Who Will Win the April 26 Primaries?

The big data is becoming more and more usual with daily news, and yet a presidential campaign is where it really comes handy. On the other side of the world, an intensive race is going on to decide who will be the next POTUS. Of course, first thing first, Democrat and Republican have to have a single candidate of their own. Five eastern states, including the key swing state of Pennsylvania will hold primaries in just few hours. So who they will pick? The Bloomberg assembled some index try to work out the winner of next key moment (find the origianl here http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-25/who-will-win-the-april-26-primaries-six-views-point-to-trump-and-clinton).

PredictWise: Trump and Clinton

This is a research project led by David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research in NYC. From the chart, it is clearly that both Clinton and Trump will win the five upcoming primaries.

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(Read more here: http://predictwise.com/)

Bing: Trump and Clinton

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According to Bing, Trump will clearly win all five Republican primaries. This research parses data from polls, prediction markets, search engine queries, and social-media posts.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is highly likely to win big in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. So in these three states, she might win 60 of the 100 statewide delegates set to be awarded proportionally.

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FiveThirtyEight: Trump and Clinton

Run by former New York Times stats guru Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump more than an 85 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania. As for the Democrats, Clinton had at least a 96 percent chance of sweeping the two largest primaries, Pennsylvania and Maryland, with an average vote share of between 57 percent and 63 percent. Clinton also had a 92 percent chance of winning in Connecticut.

(Read more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/)

Ballotcraft: Trump and Clinton

This fantasy politics game, founded by two Stanford grads, has thousands of players who use fake money to buy “shares” in candidates. So far, it has correctly predicted 60 of the 72 nominating contests it has covered as of one day prior to voting.

As of Sunday, shares of Trump were worth at least $0.75, meaning his chances of winning exceed 75 percent, in Maryland, Connecticut, and Delaware. In Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, the site’s users put Trump’s chances of winning at a minimum of 65 percent.

Clinton had the advantage in Maryland, with a 76-percent chance of winning; in Delaware, with 65-percent odds; and in Pennsylvania, with 59 percent. In Connecticut, where the two Democratic contenders exchanged the lead a few times earlier in the month, Clinton shares are worth around $0.59, up from a low of $0.49. The only real bright spot for Sanders is Rhode Island, where he has led since April 9 and currently has a 62-percent chance of winning.

(Get to know more here: http://www.ballotcraft.com/)

 


Posted by: chloezhaoD&N

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