Month: May 2018

第六屆香港立法會投票記錄分析(2016-2018)

本屆立法會波瀾起伏,6名議員先後被取消資格(俗稱「DQ」)。時值2018年3月補選之際,我們進行該項研究,通過本屆投票記錄的數據,爲公衆還原各議員的「政治肖像」。從這份數據驅動的光譜與投票熱力圖,我們可以看出,議員們究竟是言行一致,還是逢場作戲。在公衆熱烈討論「投票率新低」和「田忌賽馬失敗」之餘,我們也要知道,誰當選固然重要,當選後做什麼也許更加值得關注,會議的提案與投票記錄詳細地反應了議員的行爲。

議員投票傾向光譜

從第五屆立法會開始,電子投票記錄以XML結構化數據的形式公佈於網站上,供公衆下載。我們通過爬蟲蒐集第六屆立法會議員從2016年11月10日至2018年3月29日做出的電子投票記錄,共27426票紀錄,對於每個議案,議員可能產生五種不同的表決結果——贊成、反對、棄權、缺席或出席(即出席會議,但未投下「贊成」、「反對」或「棄權」中的任何一票;立法會小百科 )。將不同的表決結果數值化後,使用主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,以下簡稱為 PCA),計算2萬票紀錄反映出的最大分歧,即主維度(Principal Axis),記為 PA1。同時我們計算每位議員的投票紀錄在 PA1 上的投影值,即主成分(Principal Component),記爲 PC1。PC1 體現議員之間的相對關係,兩位議員得到的分值越接近,則說明他們的投票傾向也越接近。

按照 PC1 分值由小到大排序,就得到一條數據驅動的「政治光譜」(如下圖所示)。在這條「光譜」中間,是從不投票的梁君彥。越靠近梁君彥的人,投票風格就越溫和。越遠離梁君彥的人,投票風格就越激進。而梁君彥的兩邊,按照議員所屬派別塗色,恰恰是建制和泛民兩派人馬,與常識相符。

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第六屆立法會(2016-2018)投票傾向光譜(按建制、泛民分類)
(已等比例縮放到第5屆立法會光譜的同等區間)

從相對距離上來看,泛民陣營整體離梁君彥更近,而建制則離得較遠。圖像顯示,建制派整體而言在投票中表現得比泛民更加激進。即建制派的建制立場,要強過泛民的民主立場。

光譜的兩端,分別是鄭松泰和盧偉國,這說明兩人的投票風格差異最大,相比其他議員,他們二者的投票風格最為激進。且根據統計,在投票記錄中,兩人投票意見不相同的提案數(371個)是兩人意見相同提案數量(37個)的十倍之多。

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Syria’s toxic war on itself

The Middle Eastern nation Syria has been in a state of civil war since last seven years with different groups trying to seize control of the country. The country has become an international battleground where various states and their proxy networks have been continuously clashing with each other. The war has taken the lives of more than 465,000 people so far and displaced more than 12 million, of which 6 million refugees have been dispersed around the world.

About Datasets

A media documentation — the Syrian Archive Dataset is an open source platform that collects, curates, verifies, and preserves visual documentation of human rights violations in Syria. It maintains an extensive video database of all known allegations in which civilians have been reported killed or injured since 2014. Till April 20, 2018, this database includes 4,384 videos which were documented by journalists, citizen reporters and activists.

A recorded death list — the Violations Documentation Center in Syria is one of the largest human rights organisations established in 2011 with staff members and contacts in all governorates and most cities inside Syria.

The complex nature of the war in Syria limits access to open database. And therefore, the data extracted could miss some important information; however, we will be analyzing the situation in Syria with precision by filling some of the gaps with the help of other dataset.

On the morning of April 14, 2018, the US, Britain and France bombarded three government sites in Syria allegedly targeting the chemical weapons facilities. Is it true that Syria has been continuously suffering from its internal turbulence which needs to be intervened by foreign players?

We drew a general picture of the Syria attacks based on the dataset of 329 which were recorded from January 1, 2017 to April 20, 2018.

Part 1 General Picture

Living Hell

In the war-torn country, Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, Hama and Daraa are the cities documented by both the databases as the locations where most of the violations took place, despite some slight differences on the rankings of these locations.

In the war-torn country, Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, Hama and Daraa are the cities documented by both the databases as the locations where most of the violations took place, despite some slight differences on the rankings of these locations.

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The media coverage of the locations where most violent incidents happened are highly identical to the locations recorded in the actual death list.

To be specific, the Syrian Archive, which demonstrates media coverage, witnessed most violations in Aleppo (1,920), followed by Idlib (219), Hama (103), Damascus (97) and Homs (39).

The Violations Documentation Centre of Syria, which records the actual registered death list, also presented Aleppo (7,990) as the most violation prone city in Syria, Damascus (6,372) stood tall at second, Idlib (4,434) and Deir Ezzor (2,904), a city which was absent in the media coverage database.

In terms of geographic distribution of the violent incidents in Syria, Aleppo and Idlib are the two cities ranking among the tops in both the documentations and have been the most disputed regions taken up by either rebels or jihadists, thus these are the locations where the Syrian regime and its allies have been concentrating their firepower.

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