2016立法會選戰超前瞻| First Sight of LegCo Election 2016 – From District Council Election 2015

[Body Text in Chinese, Infographics in English] District Council Election 2015 in Hong Kong – the fist ever general elections after the Occupy Movement. Both sides of the politics, government officials, even Beijing hugely care the elections. Coming up the LegCo election in just a year away, many of the political parties are trying to pave their way, especially for the 5 Super Seats. The constituency covers all regions of Hong Kong. How about the post-umbrella candidates, would this be the end for them? As the results of District Council Election arrive, we shall have a sense of what could happen in 2016 LegCo Election.

【中文文章;英文互動圖片】2015年區議會選舉——作為佔領運動後第一場大型選舉,不論泛民、建制,政府中人以至北京都十分重視。加上來年立法會選舉,不少政黨都以區選鋪路,特別是區議會(第二),即超級區議會五個全港單一選區議席,更是兵家必爭之地。還有傘兵新勢力,又如何延續氣勢?區議會選舉過後,我們也許可以從中找到來年立會選戰的一些感覺…

By CASEY MAK with assistance from KEN HO

誰進誰退?
Who’s in and Who’s out?

2012年超級區議會,民主黨區議員分別提名何俊仁及涂謹申名單;民協有馮檢基;工聯會有陳婉嫻;民建聯分別提名李慧琼和敗選後現貴為民政事務局局長劉江華;還有獨立的白韻琹。

2015區選過後,這四個政黨仍然可以提名最少一張名單,但要是派誰呢?陳婉嫻、何俊仁、馮檢基三個超級議員未有連任,不能再以超級區議會議席再次進入立法會… 公民黨只得10席,陳家洛於海怡東敗選,如意算盤打不響,但還有新民主同盟以門檻15席爭得入場券,可以提名一張名單,加入戰團,范國威會否轉戰超區?…

互動圖片(英文) | Interactive infographic

DCE2015 to Super Seats 2016

傘開了,區選完了,然後呢?
What’s next for Post-Umbrella Candidates?

雖然滅鼠不成,但傘兵在各區都略有成績,特別是民建聯鍾樹根在漁灣敗於「最後一日才報名參選」的傘兵徐子見,成為一時佳話。他們有力攻入立法會,繼續以進入建制,改變建制?數字上,有可能。

一眾傘兵全港共擁超過9萬票,佔全港選票超過6%,雖然這個數字帳面難為與超級區議會議席當選票數相比,但傘兵仍有機會以分區直選進軍立法會。在港島參選區議會選舉的傘兵所得票數總計24,000多票,佔整體港島區選票10.05%。如此百分比與2012年立法會選舉對照,他們可以成為得票第5多的候選名單,次於鍾樹根,優於何秀蘭的得票比例。

互動圖片(英文) | Interactive infographic

Untitled Report (1)


Posted by: Casey Mak

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